Tuesday 30th July 2019

13:30 – 17:30 Workshop: “Using Simulation Studies to Evaluate Statistical Methods” by Tim Morris and Michael Crowther
19:00 Social: Quiz Night

Wednesday 31st July 2019

9:00 Registration and Refreshments
9:30 Welcome by Alan Langlands
9:45 Sponsor Talks: RSS/YSS and Lubrizol
10:30 Plenary Talk: “Recurrent events analysis: methodological developments and regulatory challenges“ by Jennifer Rogers
11:30 Break and Refreshments with Posters and Sponsors
11:50 Parallel Session 1

  • Multi-State Modelling Chair: David Hughes
    1. Isabelle Smith: Implications on Sample Size and Power When Using Multi-State Models to Analyse Pressure Ulcer Prevention Trials
    2. Micki Hill: Relaxing the Constant Hazard Assumption in a Multi-State Model in Hospital Epidemiology
    3. Michael Barrowman: Validation Measures in Multi-State Clinical Prediction Models
    4. Ryan Jessop: Analysis of Clickstream Data
  • Machine Learning and Big Data Chair: Iva Budimir
    1. Nicholas Peckham: Using Cluster Analysis to Group Countries Based on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors
    2. Max Stockdale: Updating a Business Survey Sampling Frame Using Machine Learning
    3. Emma Pritchard: Comparing the Sensitivity of Data Input in Clustering Methods to Describe Deaths in Oxfordshire
    4. Callum Vyner: Divide-and-Conquer Monte Carlo – Marginal Views
13:10 Buffet Lunch
14:10 Plenary Talk: “Communicating Statistics in an Expert Sceptical World” By Joy Leahy
15:10 Parallel Session 2

  • Public Sector, Government and Environmental Statistics Chair: Karen Tingay
    1. Kieran Bromley: Creating Updated Norms for Early Child Development in Developing Countries
    2. Gareth McCray: Sample Size and Stratum Weight Estimation for the Detection of Differential Item Functioning in Early Child Development Measures
    3. Zoe Craig: Is the Association Between Gestational Weight Gain and Macrosomia an Artefact of Tautology: A Simulation Study
    4. Xiaoyue Xi: Substantial Variation in HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics Over Small Geographic Scales in Rakai District, Uganda
  • Clinical Trials Chair: Bethan Copsey
    1. Emily Robinson: Balancing Pragmatism, Transparency and Statistics in Randomised Controlled Trials: How to Approach an Over-Dispersed, Self-Reported, Count Outcome of a Complex Intervention
    2. Meredith Martyn: The Impact of Trial Design in Phase II Oncology Trials: A Comprehensive Review
    3. Laura Marsden: Open Cohort Designs in Institutional Settings: Findings From a Literature of Care Home Trials
    4. Harry Parr: Mixed-Effects Models to Characterise Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) Dynamics Post-Radiotherapy in the CHHiP Clinical Trial
16:30 Networking and Poster Session
17:30 End of First Day
19:00 Conference Dinner

Thursday 1st August 2019

9:30 Plenary Talk: “Sports and statistics a decade of predicting the unpredictable” by Rob Mastrodomenico
10:30 Sponsor Talk: School of Mathematics
10:50 Break and Refreshments with Posters and Sponsors
11:20 Parallel Session 3

  • Routine Data Chair: Alex Wright-Hughes
    1. Paraskevi Taxiarchi: Same Day Discharge After Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention from 2007 to 2014 in England & Wales: Insights from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society
    2. John Tazare: Implementing High-Dimensional Propensity Score (hd-PS) Principles to Improve Confounder Adjustment in UK Electronic Health Records
    3. Jamie Stokes: Calculating Avoidable Deaths for Cancer Patient Survival
    4. Eleanor Hudson: Lancaster Royal Infirmary: Forecasting Accident and Emergency Incidences
  • Bayesian Statistics Chair: Anastasia Frantsuzova
    1. Davide Ravagli: Bayesian Analysis of Mixture Autoregressive Models Covering the Complete Parameter Space
    2. David Hughes: Modelling Multiple Longitudinal Markers in Large Datasets using Variational Bayes
    3. Ben Jones: Using Bayesian Methods to Account for Uncertainty in Parameter Estimations Used in the Design of Cluster Randomised Controlled Trials
    4. Bindu Vekaria: Modelling Baseline Hazards in a Cox Model Using Gaussian Processes
12:40 Buffet Lunch
13:40 Plenary Talk: “New World of Statistics in Actuarial Science“ by Will Mirams and Matthew Parkinson
14:40 Parallel Session 4

  • Spatial Modelling Chair: Karen Tingay
    1. Elizabeth Gray: Utility Based Methods for Preferentially Sampled Spatial Data
    2. Florence Tydeman: Investigating the Relationship between Antibiotic Prescribing Rates in Scotland and GP Practice Demographics Using Maps, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Spatial Analysis
    3. Gonzalo Vicente: Analysing Crimes Against Women in India Using Multivariate Disease Mapping Models
    4. Ghanim Al-Hasani: Evaluation of Generalised Geographically Weighted Models for Different Kernels with Road Traffic Accident Data
  • Statistics in Medicine Chair: Maarten van Schaik
    Room 9.58B
    1. Bethan Copsey: Should We Account for Duration of Follow-Up in the Calculation of Minimum Clinically Important Differences?
    2. Benjamin Kearns: The Extrapolation Performance of Standard and Flexible Survival Models: a Simulation Study
    3. Nick Beckley-Hoelsher: In Need of Some Simulation: the Monte Carlo Method for Sample Size Calculations
    4. Duncan Wilson: Robust, Value-Based Sample Size Determination for Clinical Trials When Nuisance Parameters are Unknown
16:00 Voting, Closing Remarks and Prize Giving by Deborah Stocken
16:30 Conference Close